Bitcoin arbitrage - ScienceDirect

Investigating the Great Korean Bitcoin Arbitrage Opportunity (from 2015 but still relevant)

Investigating the Great Korean Bitcoin Arbitrage Opportunity (from 2015 but still relevant) submitted by lehyde to ethtrader [link] [comments]

REPOST from November 2015: "Forkology 301: The Three Tiers of Investor Control over Bitcoin - Tier 1: Expression of Intent; Tier 2: FORK ARBITRAGE ON EXCHANGES; Tier 3: Spinoff with New Hashing Algorithm" ~ u/ForkiusMaximus

This is one of the most important posts from u/ForkiusMaximus - and it is highly relevant today, now that exchanges (such as ViaBTC) have already started allowing investors to do "fork futures" or "fork arbitrage" trading - putting their money where their mouth is, to invest in Bitcoin-Cash versus Bitcoin-SegWit.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3t4kbk/forkology_301_the_three_tiers_of_investor_control/
Tier 2: Fork Arbitrage on Exchanges
This case is [...] only required if a change is too controversial for something like XT's 75% threshold to be relied upon. Here, several weeks/months before the fork is to occur, Bitcoin exchanges prepare futures contracts for, say, coins in Core and coins in XT, and let investors effectively sell their coins in Core to buy more coins in XT, or vice versa.
For example if you have 10 BTC, you would of course have 10 Core bitcoins and 10 XT bitcoins after the fork if you took no action, but if you choose to participate in the arbitrage you might sell your 10 future Core bitcoins and use them to increase your future XT bitcoin count to 15 or 20 BTC. Why would it ever be only 15 BTC? This would be the case where you entered the arbitraging late and Core bitcoin futures had already fallen to half the price of XT bitcoin futures, meaning your 10 Core BTC only buys you 5 XT BTC. [For more technical details, see Meni Rosenfeld's How I learned to stop worrying and love the fork, though he doesn't address the futures contract innovation, which further streamlines the process by giving a very strong indication of the winner before the fork even happens.]
In almost all conceivable cases a definitive winner emerges (and if not, no other method is going to do any better at determining the winner), and the other fork either dies or becomes a niche alt-protocol coin (not really an "altcoin," since it shares Bitcoin's ledger). The niche coin would likely only arise and persist if there truly were a key tradeoff being made, as some small block adherents argue. In any case, hodler purchasing power is completely preserved by default if they choose not to bet in the "forkbitrage" process, even in the event of a persistent split.
This forkbitrage process represents a more direct expression of investor will than in Tier 1. (Also, it may be possible that this process starting up would kick off Tier 1 effects that would allow the more radical measure of forbitrage to be halted early, with the exchanges returning investors' bets.)
submitted by ydtm to btc [link] [comments]

REPOST from November 2015: "Forkology 301: The Three Tiers of Investor Control over Bitcoin - Tier 1: Expression of Intent; Tier 2: FORK ARBITRAGE ON EXCHANGES; Tier 3: Spinoff with New Hashing Algorithm" ~ u/ForkiusMaximus /r/btc

REPOST from November 2015: submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

How I Got a Deep 70% Discount on the Newly Launched Sonos Five

I posted this back in June 2020 on Medium, but thought I'd re-post here as well in case it's helpful!
None of this is groundbreaking, just wanted to share the combo of things I did (discount codes, selling old speakers, etc.) to off-set the Sonos 5 purchase!
Also, I'm new to the Reddit community, this is my first post :)

Here's the original article:

A huge new update was just released to usher in the next generation of Sonos devices. The new ’S2’ update is both a new app and a new operating system, opening up a new world of features like hi-res audio, a subtle new look, and other much-awaited goodies.
But the update also means that older Sonos devices are no longer supported in the new ecosystem. I owned one of these dinosaurs - the flagship model 1st generation Play: 5 originally released in 2009.
This is how I upgraded to the newly launched Play Five - originally priced at $499 - for a total purchase price of $138 bought directly from Sonos. That’s a 70% savings!

The Sonos Trade Up Program
So you paid hundreds or even thousands of dollars for your home audio system, only to find that your devices will no longer be supported in the bright new Sonos future ahead.
Enter the Trade Up program. Sonos encourages its loyal customers to upgrade their eligible devices by giving them a nice 30% discount on new devices purchased directly on sonos.com or through authorized retailers.
The process is so quick and easy, I didn’t even realize what I had done until after I got the deal.
First, sign in to your account on sonos.com. Once logged in, you should then see a “Trade Up” page where you can get a list of all the devices in your current system that are eligible for the program. I own a Play: 1, a One, a Beam, but only my Play: 5 was eligible for the Trade Up program. Once you choose your eligible device and confirm, you instantly get the 30% off discount in your account, and can verify that you got it by going to the “Offers” page. You don’t even have to enter a promo code. As long as you’re logged in, your next order gets the discount.
The 30% discount never expires and can be used on one full-priced device.
Sonos also provides some info on how to recycle your old device so that it doesn’t go to a landfill. How thoughtful and sustainable.
But the Trade Up program wasn’t always as eco-friendly. Sonos got quite a bit of bad press back in October 2019 for the controversial “Recycle Mode” that bricked devices that were redeemed for discounts using the Trade Up program. After getting their 30% Trade Up discount, customers used to get a 21-day countdown before the old device goes into Recycle Mode, which wiped out all the data then permanently bricked the device. This was seen as an environmentally unfriendly abuse of hardware, most of which was still functioning perfectly even though they wouldn’t be getting feature updates. Good move on Sonos to get rid of this unnecessary bricking.
At the time of this writing, in addition to the Play: 5, other products eligible for the Trade Up program include Zone Players, along with Connect and Connect:Amp devices manufactured between 2011 and 2015.
After the 30% Trade Up discount, a brand new Play Five would cost $349 directly from sonos.com.
If 30% off is a good enough deal for you, high five and congrats on getting an awesome discount, you can stop reading here. The rest is how I got my purchase price down to more than 70% off.

My Price Arbitrage Hack
If you don’t have a legacy device, buy one on eBay! This may seem counterintuitive, but you could actually save money by buying a legacy device - as long as the 30% discount you would get is more than what you paid for the legacy speaker.
Please double, triple, quadruple check that the device you’re buying on eBay (or other marketplaces) is on the list of eligible devices for the Trade Up program.
Here’s how stumbled upon this great hack.
I bought my Play: 5 on eBay only a couple of months ago for $125 - inclusive of taxes and shipping - not even intending to trade it up. I actually didn’t even know about the Trade Up program when I made the purchase, and just needed a way to connect my turntable to my Sonos system using the Play: 5’s line-in. The unit I ended up buying looked like it had seen better days - black skid marks, surface scratches, and even a pretty large piece of plastic missing from the top edge. But it was functioning perfectly and allowed me to finally play my vinyl collection through Sonos speakers around my apartment.
Fast forward 2 months later - I was initially bummed that my eBay purchase was on the list of legacy devices that wouldn’t be supported by the ‘S2’ update. After some creative math, my frustration was quickly replaced by joy when I found out the 30% I’d get off a new Play Five would be more than the $125 I paid for my old speakers.

Get a Bundle
Sometimes you have to spend more money to save even more money. Here’s how I stretched my Trade Up discount to get an even better deal on my Play Five.
I ended up using my 30% Trade Up discount on not one, but two Play Fives with the Two Room Pro Set, for a total of $699 directly from sonos.com.
I live in a 1-bedroom apartment and don’t want my neighbors to hate me, so I planned on keeping only one device. Why did I buy the bundle then? Because I knew I could sell the second unit for more than the $349 that I paid, while still giving the buyer a good discount off a newly launched product.
There was also zero risk on my end thanks to the 45-day Return Policy. If I wasn’t able to sell the second unit, I could easily submit a return and get my money back.
As soon as I placed the order, I posted a brand new white Play Five on the Reddit buy/sell/trade thread for $425. This would get the buyer $75 a brand new Play Five, pretty nifty as discounts are unheard of for newly launched products.
Unfortunately the Play Fives were backordered, so I wasn’t able to get my order until almost two weeks later. But being on backorder gave me some insight that there was more than enough demand for the product - great news for someone trying to sell one!
Within minutes of receiving my package, I quickly posted it on Mercari and Facebook Marketplace, and almost instantly sold it. Now I’m wondering if I could’ve listed it a little higher!
I got my asking price of $425, bringing the purchase price of the Five I kept to $274 - that’s 45% off the original price!

Sell Redundant Units
If you’re perfectly happy with almost half off the $499 list price, then stop here, and go place your order already! The next tip might take a little more effort, but it’s what got me down to an out of pocket cost of $138 for the newly launched Fives.
Here it is - I sold the old Play: 5 for $85. Yes, the same unit that Sonos gave me a 30% Trade Up discount on. This sounded shady to me too, so I checked. The Verge mentioned it as an option. I reached out to Sonos, but haven’t gotten a reply. https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/30/21042871/sonos-recycle-mode-trade-up-program-controversy
I posted it on Mercari for $95, it sold for the asking price within 30 minutes, and the buyer even paid for shipping. Now I’m thinking again, could I have listed it for higher?
Mercari takes a 10% cut, so that takes my earnings down to $85.50, and bringing my Play Five purchase price down to $213. Well, technically $213.50, but I’ll give you the fifty cents back if it can cut back on my typing.
I found the final $75 difference by selling an older Play: 1 that would’ve been in the same space as my new Play Five. Once again, I don’t want my neighbors to hate me. Now, I get that not everyone will have an extra Sonos speaker laying around to sell, but I did, so I’m counting it in my total.
With the $75 earnings from my old Play: 1, my final purchase price for the freshly launched brand new Play Five is $138.

Get it Certified Refurbished
Want a quicker and easer way to get a discount on Sonos products directly from sonos.com? Buy refurbished.
This is actually where I got the Play: 1 that I told you about earlier. I bought it for $99 and sold it for $75 two years later, proving how much stored value Sonos products have. It may even more stable than Bitcoin.
Right now there aren’t too many deals to snag in the Refurbished section, but keep checking back as they update it pretty regularly.

Conclusion
It takes a little bit of pre-planning and patience, but by taking advantage of Sonos offers along with creative arbitrage, you can get 72% off a brand new newly launched product directly from the manufacturer.
submitted by yikessilly to sonos [link] [comments]

ETHE & GBTC (Grayscale) Frequently Asked Questions

It is no doubt Grayscale’s booming popularity as a mainstream investment has caused a lot of community hullabaloo lately. As such, I felt it was worth making a FAQ regarding the topic. I’m looking to update this as needed and of course am open to suggestions / adding any questions.
The goal is simply to have a thread we can link to anyone with questions on Grayscale and its products. Instead of explaining the same thing 3 times a day, shoot those posters over to this thread. My hope is that these questions are answered in a fairly simple and easy to understand manner. I think as the sub grows it will be a nice reference point for newcomers.
Disclaimer: I do NOT work for Grayscale and as such am basing all these answers on information that can be found on their website / reports. (Grayscale’s official FAQ can be found here). I also do NOT have a finance degree, I do NOT have a Series 6 / 7 / 140-whatever, and I do NOT work with investment products for my day job. I have an accounting background and work within the finance world so I have the general ‘business’ knowledge to put it all together, but this is all info determined in my best faith effort as a layman. The point being is this --- it is possible I may explain something wrong or missed the technical terms, and if that occurs I am more than happy to update anything that can be proven incorrect
Everything below will be in reference to ETHE but will apply to GBTC as well. If those two segregate in any way, I will note that accordingly.
What is Grayscale? 
Grayscale is the company that created the ETHE product. Their website is https://grayscale.co/
What is ETHE? 
ETHE is essentially a stock that intends to loosely track the price of ETH. It does so by having each ETHE be backed by a specific amount of ETH that is held on chain. Initially, the newly minted ETHE can only be purchased by institutions and accredited investors directly from Grayscale. Once a year has passed (6 months for GBTC) it can then be listed on the OTCQX Best Market exchange for secondary trading. Once listed on OTCQX, anyone investor can purchase at this point. Additional information on ETHE can be found here.
So ETHE is an ETF? 
No. For technical reasons beyond my personal understandings it is not labeled an ETF. I know it all flows back to the “Securities Act Rule 144”, but due to my limited knowledge on SEC regulations I don’t want to misspeak past that. If anyone is more knowledgeable on the subject I am happy to input their answer here.
How long has ETHE existed? 
ETHE was formed 12/14/2017. GBTC was formed 9/25/2013.
How is ETHE created? 
The trust will issue shares to “Authorized Participants” in groups of 100 shares (called baskets). Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create these baskets and they do it on behalf of the investor.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 39 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Note – The way their reports word this makes it sound like there is an army of authorizers doing the dirty work, but in reality there is only one Authorized Participant. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well. (And to really go down the rabbit hole it looks like DCG is the parent company of CoinDesk and is “backing 150+ companies across 30 countries, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Chainalysis.”)
Source: Digital Currency Group, Inc. informational section on page 77 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
Source: Barry E. Silbert informational section on page 75 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
How does Grayscale acquire the ETH to collateralize the ETHE product? 
An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 40 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Where does Grayscale store their ETH? Does it have a specific wallet address we can follow? 
ETH is stored with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC. I am unaware of any specific address or set of addresses that can be used to verify the ETH is actually there.
As an aside - I would actually love to see if anyone knows more about this as it’s something that’s sort of peaked my interest after being asked about it… I find it doubtful we can find that however.
Source: Part C. Business Information, Item 8, subsection A. on page 16 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Can ETHE be redeemed for ETH? 
No, currently there is no way to give your shares of ETHE back to Grayscale to receive ETH back. The only method of getting back into ETH would be to sell your ETHE to someone else and then use those proceeds to buy ETH yourself.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Why are they not redeeming shares? 
I think the report summarizes it best:
Redemptions of Shares are currently not permitted and the Trust is unable to redeem Shares. Subject to receipt of regulatory approval from the SEC and approval by the Sponsor in its sole discretion, the Trust may in the future operate a redemption program. Because the Trust does not believe that the SEC would, at this time, entertain an application for the waiver of rules needed in order to operate an ongoing redemption program, the Trust currently has no intention of seeking regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the fee structure? 
ETHE has an annual fee of 2.5%. GBTC has an annual fee of 2.0%. Fees are paid by selling the underlying ETH / BTC collateralizing the asset.
Source: ETHE’s informational page on Grayscale’s website - Located Here
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 & 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the ratio of ETH to ETHE? 
At the time of posting (6/19/2020) each ETHE share is backed by .09391605 ETH. Each share of GBTC is backed by .00096038 BTC.
ETHE & GBTC’s specific information page on Grayscale’s website updates the ratio daily – Located Here
For a full historical look at this ratio, it can be found on the Grayscale home page on the upper right side if you go to Tax Documents > 2019 Tax Documents > Grayscale Ethereum Trust 2019 Tax Letter.
Why is the ratio not 1:1? Why is it always decreasing? 
While I cannot say for certain why the initial distribution was not a 1:1 backing, it is more than likely to keep the price down and allow more investors a chance to purchase ETHE / GBTC.
As noted above, fees are paid by selling off the ETH collateralizing ETHE. So this number will always be trending downward as time goes on.
Source: Description of Trust on page 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
I keep hearing about how this is locked supply… explain? 
As noted above, there is currently no redemption program for converting your ETHE back into ETH. This means that once an ETHE is issued, it will remain in circulation until a redemption program is formed --- something that doesn’t seem to be too urgent for the SEC or Grayscale at the moment. Tiny amounts will naturally be removed due to fees, but the bulk of the asset is in there for good.
Knowing that ETHE cannot be taken back and destroyed at this time, the ETH collateralizing it will not be removed from the wallet for the foreseeable future. While it is not fully locked in the sense of say a totally lost key, it is not coming out any time soon.
Per their annual statement:
The Trust’s ETH will be transferred out of the ETH Account only in the following circumstances: (i) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee or any Additional Trust Expenses, (ii) distributed in connection with the redemption of Baskets (subject to the Trust’s obtaining regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program and the consent of the Sponsor), (iii) sold on an as-needed basis to pay Additional Trust Expenses or (iv) sold on behalf of the Trust in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Grayscale now owns a huge chunk of both ETH and BTC’s supply… should we be worried about manipulation, a sell off to crash the market crash, a staking cartel? 
First, it’s important to remember Grayscale is a lot more akin to an exchange then say an investment firm. Grayscale is working on behalf of its investors to create this product for investor control. Grayscale doesn’t ‘control’ the ETH it holds any more then Coinbase ‘controls’ the ETH in its hot wallet. (Note: There are likely some varying levels of control, but specific to this topic Grayscale cannot simply sell [legally, at least] the ETH by their own decision in the same manner Coinbase wouldn't be able to either.)
That said, there shouldn’t be any worry in the short to medium time-frame. As noted above, Grayscale can’t really remove ETH other than for fees or termination of the product. At 2.5% a year, fees are noise in terms of volume. Grayscale seems to be the fastest growing product in the crypto space at the moment and termination of the product seems unlikely.
IF redemptions were to happen tomorrow, it’s extremely unlikely we would see a mass exodus out of the product to redeem for ETH. And even if there was incentive to get back to ETH, the premium makes it so that it would be much more cost effective to just sell your ETHE on the secondary market and buy ETH yourself. Remember, any redemption is up to the investors and NOT something Grayscale has direct control over.
Yes, but what about [insert criminal act here]… 
Alright, yes. Technically nothing is stopping Grayscale from selling all the ETH / BTC and running off to the Bahamas (Hawaii?). BUT there is no real reason for them to do so. Barry is an extremely public figure and it won’t be easy for him to get away with that. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust creates SEC reports weekly / bi-weekly and I’m sure given the sentiment towards crypto is being watched carefully. Plus, Grayscale is making tons of consistent revenue and thus has little to no incentive to give that up for a quick buck.
That’s a lot of ‘happy little feels’ Bob, is there even an independent audit or is this Tether 2.0? 
Actually yes, an independent auditor report can be found in their annual reports. It is clearly aimed more towards the financial side and I doubt the auditors are crypto savants, but it is at least one extra set of eyes. Auditors are Friedman LLP – Auditor since 2015.
Source: Independent Auditor Report starting on page 116 (of the PDF itself) of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
As mentioned by user TheCrpytosAndBloods (In Comments Below), a fun fact:
The company’s auditors Friedman LLP were also coincidentally TetheBitfinex’s auditors until They controversially parted ways in 2018 when the Tether controversy was at its height. I am not suggesting for one moment that there is anything shady about DCG - I just find it interesting it’s the same auditor.
“Grayscale sounds kind of lame” / “Not your keys not your crypto!” / “Why is anyone buying this, it sounds like a scam?” 
Welp, for starters this honestly is not really a product aimed at the people likely to be reading this post. To each their own, but do remember just because something provides no value to you doesn’t mean it can’t provide value to someone else. That said some of the advertised benefits are as follows:
So for example, I can set up an IRA at a brokerage account that has $0 trading fees. Then I can trade GBTC and ETHE all day without having to worry about tracking my taxes. All with the relative safety something like E-Trade provides over Binance.
As for how it benefits the everyday ETH holder? I think the supply lock is a positive. I also think this product exposes the Ethereum ecosystem to people who otherwise wouldn’t know about it.
Why is there a premium? Why is ETHE’s premium so insanely high compared to GBTC’s premium? 
There are a handful of theories of why a premium exists at all, some even mentioned in the annual report. The short list is as follows:
Why is ETHE’s so much higher the GBTC’s? Again, a few thoughts:

Are there any other differences between ETHE and GBTC? 
I touched on a few of the smaller differences, but one of the more interesting changes is GBTC is now a “SEC reporting company” as of January 2020. Which again goes beyond my scope of knowledge so I won’t comment on it too much… but the net result is GBTC is now putting out weekly / bi-weekly 8-K’s and annual 10-K’s. This means you can track GBTC that much easier at the moment as well as there is an extra layer of validity to the product IMO.
I’m looking for some statistics on ETHE… such as who is buying, how much is bought, etc? 
There is a great Q1 2020 report I recommend you give a read that has a lot of cool graphs and data on the product. It’s a little GBTC centric, but there is some ETHE data as well. It can be found here hidden within the 8-K filings.Q1 2020 is the 4/16/2020 8-K filing.
For those more into a GAAP style report see the 2019 annual 10-K of the same location.
Is Grayscale only just for BTC and ETH? 
No, there are other products as well. In terms of a secondary market product, ETCG is the Ethereum Classic version of ETHE. Fun Fact – ETCG was actually put out to the secondary market first. It also has a 3% fee tied to it where 1% of it goes to some type of ETC development fund.
In terms of institutional and accredited investors, there are a few ‘fan favorites’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Litcoin, Stellar, XRP, and Zcash. Something called Horizion (Backed by ZEN I guess? Idk to be honest what that is…). And a diversified Mutual Fund type fund that has a little bit of all of those. None of these products are available on the secondary market.
Are there alternatives to Grayscale? 
I know they exist, but I don’t follow them. I’ll leave this as a “to be edited” section and will add as others comment on what they know.
Per user Over-analyser (in comments below):
Coinshares (Formerly XBT provider) are the only similar product I know of. BTC, ETH, XRP and LTC as Exchange Traded Notes (ETN).
It looks like they are fully backed with the underlying crypto (no premium).
https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provideinvestor-resources/daily-hedging-position
Denominated in SEK and EUR. Certainly available in some UK pensions (SIPP).
As asked by pegcity - Okay so I was under the impression you can just give them your own ETH and get ETHE, but do you get 11 ETHE per ETH or do you get the market value of ETH in USD worth of ETHE? 
I have always understood that the ETHE issued directly through Grayscale is issued without the premium. As in, if I were to trade 1 ETH for ETHE I would get 11, not say only 2 or 3 because the secondary market premium is so high. And if I were paying cash only I would be paying the price to buy 1 ETH to get my 11 ETHE. Per page 39 of their annual statement, it reads as follows:
The Trust will issue Shares to Authorized Participants from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (with a Basket being a block of 100 Shares). The Trust will not issue fractions of a Basket. The creation (and, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redemption) of Baskets will be made only in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional ETH represented by each Basket being created (or, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redeemed), which is determined by dividing (x) the number of ETH owned by the Trust at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the trade date of a creation or redemption order, after deducting the number of ETH representing the U.S. dollar value of accrued but unpaid fees and expenses of the Trust (converted using the ETH Index Price at such time, and carried to the eighth decimal place), by (y) the number of Shares outstanding at such time (with the quotient so obtained calculated to one one-hundred-millionth of one ETH (i.e., carried to the eighth decimal place)), and multiplying such quotient by 100 (the “Basket ETH Amount”). All questions as to the calculation of the Basket ETH Amount will be conclusively determined by the Sponsor and will be final and binding on all persons interested in the Trust. The Basket ETH Amount multiplied by the number of Baskets being created or redeemed is the “Total Basket ETH Amount.” The number of ETH represented by a Share will gradually decrease over time as the Trust’s ETH are used to pay the Trust’s expenses. Each Share represented approximately 0.0950 ETH and 0.0974 ETH as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

submitted by Bob-Rossi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Hello friends! Thank you for adding me to your community, please allow me to introduce myself

My english name is Andrew Warshaver, and my Hebrew name is Melech bn'Daveed.
I have had a rather wonderful time here on Earth so far. To begin with, I lucked out in possessing a rather powerful and unique intellect. Started reading at 2.5 yrs of age, according to my mom, and my IQ test came in at 155, tested around age 10.
I also lucked out in having an exceptional, loving family, and grew up in a beautiful neighborhood.
So.. what have I done with these gifts? I was a computer prodigy, started winning programming competitions in early high school and went on to study CS at Carnegie Mellon. Worked in a variety of web services and financial markets, mostly high frequency arbitrage trading. During my time working, I became heavily addicted to oxycontin.
I eventually became disillusioned with the rat race and wanted to find a higher purpose. In early 2015 I tried to start a Direct Democracy Party in the USA, based on the principle technology called Liquid Democracy. It didn't take off and I nearly lost my marbles, because I knew it could fix the way we do governance.
It was around this time that I a) quit oxys for good and b) felt a deep connection with the universe. I think oxys were blocking out that connection and when I finally quit the connection was so powerful it overwhelmed me. I experienced Revelations at this time and recorded a variety of prophesies. As my behavior became more erratic, my family and friends pulled me back to Earth and prevented me from doing anything rash.
After dusting off the failure of that project, I found my next calling in the decentralization & cryptocurrency movement. In mid 2015 I moved to SF for a job at a Bitcoin startup (Hedgy, Inc.) and in 2016 I moved to Salt Lake to work for Patrick Byrne at his blockchain enterprise, known as tZero / Medici Ventures.
In mid 2017 I struck out on my own when I noticed myriad arbitrage opportunities in the crypto exchange space. My company, DEWMRAX Inc. joined Tribe 10 of Boost VC, which is a startup incubator in the Draper family. (run by Adam, Tim Draper's son)
By mid 2018, despite the crash in crypto markets, I had accumulated enough money to take an extended leave from industry, and I did just that. It took a long time to find my true calling, but it came to me a few months ago while doing some intense self-reflection, and through the help of guides like The Midnight Gospel.
I think I know my role to play in this great drama we are witnessing, but I'm going to keep that hush for a bit. I would like to close instead by telling you a bit about my latest project. It is intended to be both an educational movement and a spiritual renaissance. I believe the modern western world has ignored the ancient texts and traditions at our own detriment, and peril, and I plan to encourage more people to consider their value.
Yesterday I recorded a video describing this project in more detail, I'll link it in the comment section in case you'd like to watch it.
Much love to you all!
Shalom
submitted by drewshaver to OrderoftheHidden [link] [comments]

[SHARE] Textbook Megathread #18 Free PDF

Download any of these for free at https://oppfiles.com/585933
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HEMODYNAMIC ROUNDS: INTERPRETATION OF CARDIAC PATHOPHYSIOLOGY FROM PRESSURE WAVEFORM ANALYSIS (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION: EVERYDAY ENCOUNTERS (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK CFA PROGRAM CURRICULUM 2019 LEVEL II VOLUMES 1-6 – EBOOK HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (15TH EDITION) – EBOOK ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRICITY AND ELECTRONICS (CDX LEARNING SYSTEMS MASTER AUTOMOTIVE TECHNICIAN) – EBOOK STUDY GUIDE FOR PHARMACOLOGY: A PATIENT-CENTERED NURSING PROCESS APPROACH (8TH EDITION) – PDF MANAGEMENT ACROSS CULTURES (AUSTRALASIAN EDITION) – EBOOK TAYLOR’S POWER LAW: ORDER AND PATTERN IN NATURE – EBOOK THE CAMBRIDGE HANDBOOK OF EXPERTISE AND EXPERT PERFORMANCE (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK DEVELOPING ONLINE COURSES IN NURSING EDUCATION (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK CERTIFIED ACADEMIC CLINICAL NURSE EDUCATOR (CNE®CL) REVIEW MANUAL – EBOOK A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO PERSONAL CONDITIONING – EBOOK CALLED TO ACCOUNT: FINANCIAL FRAUDS THAT SHAPED THE ACCOUNTING PROFESSION (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS: INSTRUMENTS, COMMUNICATIONS, NAVIGATION, AND CONTROL – EBOOK MICROSOFT OFFICE 365 & OFFICE 2016 INTERMEDIATE – SHELLY CASHMAN SERIES – EBOOK AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRICITY AND ELECTRONICS – EBOOK HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK PARALEGAL TODAY: THE ESSENTIALS (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK THE ECONOMICS OF MONEY, BANKING AND FINANCIAL MARKETS (11TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK INTERMEDIATE ACCOUNTING: REPORTING AND ANALYSIS (2ND EDITION) – TESTBANK + ISM + POWERPOINT ETC SEGUI’S STEEL DESIGN (5TH EDITION) – INSTRUCTOR SOLUTIONS MANUAL USMLE STEP 2 CK LECTURE NOTES 2019: PSYCHIATRY, EPIDEMIOLOGY, ETHICS, PATIENT – PDF FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS (9TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK INTEGRATING WORK HEALTH AND SAFETY INTO CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT – EBOOK USMLE STEP 2 CK LECTURE NOTES 2019: OBSTETRICS/GYNECOLOGY – KAPLAN TEST PREP DESIGN OF HIGHWAY BRIDGES: AN LRFD APPROACH (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK BIM AND BIG DATA FOR CONSTRUCTION COST MANAGEMENT – EBOOK FUNDAMENTAL ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES (22ND EDITION) – TEST BANK + SOLUTIONS + PPT FUNDAMENTALS OF HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK ANDERSON’S BUSINESS LAW AND THE LEGAL ENVIRONMENT (22ND EDITION) – PDF WILEY INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATION OF IFRS STANDARDS – 2019 – EBOOK WILEY NOT-FOR-PROFIT GAAP 2018.: INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATION OF GENERALLY ACCEPTED ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK PRINCIPLES OF AUDITING & OTHER ASSURANCE SERVICES (21ST EDITION) – EBOOK QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK BUSINESS ANALYTICS AND STATISTICS – EBOOK FINANCIAL AND MANAGERIAL ACCOUNTING (7TH EDITION) – WILD, SHAW, CHIAPPETTA – EBOOK CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK MOTOR LEARNING AND CONTROL: CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK MEDICAL ETHICS: ACCOUNTS OF GROUND-BREAKING CASES (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK COMMUNITY PROJECTS AS SOCIAL ACTIVISM: FROM DIRECT ACTION TO DIRECT SERVICES – EBOOK THE CITY: THE BASICS – KEVIN ARCHER – EBOOK Designing the User Interface Strategies for Effective Human-Computer Interaction 6e global DESIGNING THE USER INTERFACE: STRATEGIES FOR EFFECTIVE HUMAN-COMPUTER INTERACTION (6TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK COMPUTER SECURITY FUNDAMENTALS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK UBUNTU UNLEASHED 2019 EDITION: COVERING 18.04, 18.10, 19.04 (13TH EDITION) – EBOOK BECKER’S WORLD OF THE CELL (9TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK MEDICAL PHYSIOLOGY: PRINCIPLES FOR CLINICAL MEDICINE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF CONTEMPORARY MANAGEMENT (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK PROJECT MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT OF ARTERIOVENOUS MALFORMATIONS OF THE BRAIN AND SPINE MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS WITH APPLICATIONS IN R (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK VERTEBROBASILAR ISCHEMIA AND HEMORRHAGE: CLINICAL FINDINGS, DIAGNOSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF POSTERIOR CIRCULATION DISEASE (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK ENGINEERING MECHANICS: STATICS, 8TH EDITION – BY MERIAM – PDF E-BOOKS, ENGINEERING, MECHANICS, SCIENCE, TEXTBOOKS MOLECULAR BIOLOGY: DIFFERENT FACETS – EBOOK BASIC ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING OF THE BRAIN AND SPINE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK UNIVERSITY PHYSICS WITH MODERN PHYSICS (14TH EDITION) – EBOOK ROBERT HISRICH’S ENTREPRENEURSHIP (10TH EDITION) – (IRWIN MANAGEMENT) – EBOOK BIOLOGY: CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK NEW VENTURE CREATION: ENTREPRENEURSHIP FOR THE 21ST CENTURY (10TH EDITION) WONG’S NURSING CARE OF INFANTS AND CHILDREN (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK PRINCIPLES OF CANCER BIOLOGY – NEW INTERNATIONAL EDITION – EBOOK FORENSIC SCIENCE: FROM THE CRIME SCENE TO THE CRIME LAB (4TH EDITION) – TESTBANK + POWERPOINT INTRODUCTION TO JAVA PROGRAMMING AND DATA STRUCTURES, COMPREHENSIVE VERSION (11TH GLOBAL EDITION) UNIVERSITY PHYSICS FOR THE PHYSICAL AND LIFE SCIENCES – SOLUTION MANUAL PRINCIPLES OF GENERAL CHEMISTRY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK DEVITA, HELLMAN, AND ROSENBERG’S CANCER, PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE OF ONCOLOGY: REVIEW (4TH EDITION) LEARNING PYTHON APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT – EBOOK RESEARCH METHODS AND STATISTICS IN PSYCHOLOGY (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK MATERNAL CHILD NURSING CARE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK SNAPSHOTS OF HEMODYNAMICS: AN AID FOR CLINICAL RESEARCH AND GRADUATE EDUCATION (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK YAMADA’S TEXTBOOK OF GASTROENTEROLOGY, 2 VOLUME SET (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK KRUGMAN’S ECONOMICS FOR AP® (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY (8TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK PRECALCULUS: GRAPHICAL, NUMERICAL, ALGEBRAIC (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK PRINCIPLES OF MARKETING (7TH EUROPEAN EDITION) – EBOOK CLINICAL GASTROINTESTINAL ENDOSCOPY: A COMPREHENSIVE ATLAS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK ADVANCED FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING (12TH EDITION) – EBOOK FORENSIC PLANT SCIENCE – EBOOK THE OXFORD HANDBOOK OF WITCHCRAFT IN EARLY MODERN EUROPE AND COLONIAL AMERICA – EBOOK THE MINDBODY WORKBOOK: A THIRTY DAY PROGRAM OF INSIGHT AND AWARENESS FOR PEOPLE WITH BACK PAIN AND OTHER DISORDERS – EBOOK HARRISON’S HEMATOLOGY AND ONCOLOGY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK JAVA IN TWO SEMESTERS: FEATURING JAVAFX (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK CHEMISTRY: THE CENTRAL SCIENCE (11TH EDITION) – TEST BANK WILLIAMSON’S MACROECONOMICS (6TH EDITION) – THE PEARSON SERIES IN ECONOMICS – EBOOK BIOLOGY: A GLOBAL APPROACH (11TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK AMERICAN ACADEMY OF PEDIATRICS TEXTBOOK OF PEDIATRIC CARE (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK BUSINESS LAW TODAY, COMPREHENSIVE: TEXT AND CASES: DIVERSE, ETHICAL, ONLINE, AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT (10TH EDITION) C++ PROGRAMMING: FROM PROBLEM ANALYSIS TO PROGRAM DESIGN (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS TODAY, ENHANCED (18TH EDITION) – EBOOK LUNG CANCER: A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO EVIDENCE-BASED CLINICAL EVALUATION AND MANAGEMENT – EBOOK ROGERS’ TEXTBOOK OF PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK INTRODUCTORY CHEMISTRY (5TH EDITION) – NIVALDO TRO – EBOOK EQUINE VETERINARY NURSING (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK CONTANZO’S PHYSIOLOGY (7TH EDITION) – BOARD REVIEW SERIES – EBOOK BAILEY AND LOVE’S SHORT PRACTICE OF SURGERY (27TH EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF HOSPITAL NEUROLOGY – EBOOK FAT FOR FUEL KETOGENIC COOKBOOK: RECIPES AND KETOGENIC KEYS TO HEALTH FROM A WORLD-CLASS DOCTOR AND AN INTERNATIONALLY RENOWNED CHEF COST ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGERS – EBOOK WARDLAW’S CONTEMPORARY NUTRITION UPDATED WITH 2015-2020 DIETARY GUIDELINES (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK OPERATIONS AND PROCESS MANAGEMENT: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE FOR STRATEGIC IMPACT (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK BUSINESS COMMUNICATION: POLISHING YOUR PROFESSIONAL PRESENCE (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK CONTEMPORARY ENGINEERING ECONOMICS (6TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK BIOCHEMISTRY: CONCEPTS AND CONNECTIONS (2ND EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK WHY PUNISH? HOW MUCH? A READER ON PUNISHMENT – EBOOK INTRODUCTORY ALGEBRA (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK DATA WRANGLING WITH JAVASCRIPT – EBOOK FUNDAMENTALS OF MANAGEMENT: MANAGEMENT MYTHS DEBUNKED! (10TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK LARSON’S PRECALCULUS (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK E-BOOKS AN INTRODUCTION TO MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS – EBOOK INTRODUCTION TO CRYPTOGRAPHY: PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOUR – 1ST CANADIAN EDITION – EBOOK CORPORATE FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK MACHINE ELEMENTS IN MECHANICAL DESIGN (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK PROGRAMMING BITCOIN: LEARN HOW TO PROGRAM BITCOIN FROM SCRATCH – EBOOK MINING THE SOCIAL WEB: DATA MINING FACEBOOK, TWITTER, LINKEDIN, INSTAGRAM, GITHUB, AND MORE (3RD EDITION) ECONOMICS (9TH EDITION) BY SLOMAN ET AL – EBOOK APPLIED BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS (2ND EDITION – INTERNATIONAL) – EBOOK CRYPTOGRAPHY AND NETWORK SECURITY: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE (7TH EDITION) GLOBAL BIOPSYCHOLOGY (10TH EDITION) GLOBAL – EBOOK COMPREHENSIVE CLINICAL NEPHROLOGY (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK MESSAGES: BUILDING INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION SKILLS (5TH CANADIAN EDITION) – EBOOK APPLIED NUMERICAL METHODS WITH MATLAB FOR ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS (4TH EDITION) BUSINESS DRIVEN TECHNOLOGY (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK FOUNDATIONS IN MICROBIOLOGY (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK HUMAN BIOLOGY: CONCEPTS AND CURRENT ISSUES (8TH EDITION – GLOBAL) – EBOOK BIOLOGY: CONCEPTS AND INVESTIGATIONS (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK DATABASE SYSTEMS: DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION, AND MANAGEMENT (12TH EDITION) HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, 14TH EDITION (GLOBAL) – EBOOK ECOSOPHICAL AESTHETICS: ART, ETHICS AND ECOLOGY WITH GUATTARI – EBOOK PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE OF PEDIATRIC INFECTIOUS DISEASES (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK E-BOOKS, MEDICINE, PEDIATRICS HOUSE OF SPIES – DANIEL SILVA – AUDIOBOOK IN-CAMERA: LIGHT VIDEO WORKSHOP WITH ZACH & JODY MBA IN A BOOK: MASTERING BUSINESS WITH ATTITUDE – AUDIOBOOK SUPERFREAKONOMICS: GLOBAL COOLING, PATRIOTIC PROSTITUTES, AND WHY SUICIDE BOMBERS SHOULD BUY LIFE INSURANCE 10% HAPPIER: HOW I TAMED THE VOICE IN MY HEAD – DAN HARRIS – AUDIOBOOK GENERAL, ORGANIC, AND BIOCHEMISTRY (9TH EDITION) – EBOOK INTERMEDIATE ACCOUNTING (11TH CANADIAN EDITION) – VOLUME I AND II – EBOOK ANATOMY: A PHOTOGRAPHIC ATLAS (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK MANAGEMENT AND COST ACCOUNTING (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK FUNDAMENTALS OF QUANTUM MECHANICS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK GAUGE THEORIES IN PARTICLE PHYSICS: A PRACTICAL INTRODUCTION, VOLUME 1 AND 2 (4TH EDITION) PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS FOR ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS (9TH EDITION) GLOBAL – EBOOK BLACK’S LAW DICTIONARY (STANDARD 9TH EDITION) – EBOOK CHESLEY’S HYPERTENSIVE DISORDERS IN PREGNANCY (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK GRAY’S ATLAS OF ANATOMY (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK LANGE Q&A PSYCHIATRY (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK E-BOOKS, MEDICINE, PSYCHOLOGY, TEXTBOOKS CLINICAL CASES IN ENDODONTICS – EBOOK THE WASHINGTON MANUAL OF SURGERY (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK CELL BIOLOGY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK BRUNNER AND SUDDARTH’S TEXTBOOK OF MEDICAL-SURGICAL NURSING (12TH EDITION) THE WASHINGTON MANUAL OF PEDIATRICS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING: PEDIATRICS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK MANUAL OF CLINICAL PROCEDURES IN DENTISTRY – EBOOK PEDIATRIC DENTISTRY: A CLINICAL APPROACH (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK CANCER CHEMOTHERAPY, IMMUNOTHERAPY AND BIOTHERAPY (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK STEP-UP TO EMERGENCY MEDICINE – EBOOK (IRWIN ECONOMICS) – ECONOMICS (21ST EDITION) – EBOOK FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTING (13TH EDITION) GLOBAL – EBOOK VIDEO GAME LAW: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT LEGAL AND BUSINESS ISSUES IN THE GAME INDUSTRY – EBOOK MASS MEDIA LAW (20TH EDITION) – EBOOK PRIVATE SECURITY AND THE LAW (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS, ACCOUNTING AND BUSINESS STUDIES (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK DESCRIPTIVE INORGANIC CHEMISTRY (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK HOUSE’S DESCRIPTIVE INORGANIC CHEMISTRY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK COST ACCOUNTING: FOUNDATIONS AND EVOLUTIONS (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO LEARNING ROBOT PROGRAMMING WITH ROS – EBOOK ENGINEERING MECHANICS: STATICS AND DYNAMICS (14TH EDITION) – EBOOK ADVANCED ACCOUNTING (12TH EDITION) – EBOOK ADVANCED ACCOUNTING (13TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK MODERN PHYSICS: FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK GLOBAL ETHICS FOR LEADERSHIP (VOLUME 13) – EBOOK E-BOOKS, MANAGEMENT, POLITICS ENCYCLOPEDIA OF SCHOOL HEALTH – EBOOK CRASH COURSE – RESPIRATORY SYSTEM (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK MICROBIAL ECOLOGY OF THE OCEANS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK ENGINEERING FUNDAMENTALS: AN INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING (5TH EDITION) SI EDITION INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND POLICY 11TH EDITION (GLOBAL) – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF ECONOMICS (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK INDUSTRIAL PROCESS AUTOMATION SYSTEMS: DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION – EBOOK CLASSICAL GEOMETRY: EUCLIDEAN, TRANSFORMATIONAL, INVERSIVE, AND PROJECTIVE – EBOOK CAMPBELL BIOLOGY IN FOCUS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK ORGANIC CHEMISTRY (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK ELEMENTARY STATISTICS: PICTURING THE WORLD (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK DISCOVERING COMPUTERS & MICROSOFT OFFICE 365 & OFFICE 2016: A FUNDAMENTAL COMBINED APPROACH – EBOOK INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK CHEMISTRY, E-BOOKS, SCIENCE MAYO CLINIC INTERNAL MEDICINE BOARD REVIEW (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK AUGUST’S CONSULTATIONS IN FELINE INTERNAL MEDICINE, VOLUME 7 (1ST EDITION) – EBOOK HUMAN RIGHTS AND PERSONAL SELF-DEFENSE IN INTERNATIONAL LAW – EBOOK THE IRAN-UAE GULF ISLANDS DISPUTE (QUEEN MARY STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL LAW) – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF HUMAN ANATOMY & PHYSIOLOGY (12TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK A&P, E-BOOKS, TEXTBOOKS ESSENTIALS OF ANATOMY & PHYSIOLOGY (7TH EDITION, GLOBAL) – EBOOK CREASY AND RESNIK’S MATERNAL-FETAL MEDICINE: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK GEAR CUTTING TOOLS: SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (2ND EDITION) – EBOOKS HARRISON’S PRINCIPLES OF INTERNAL MEDICINE (19TH EDITION) – PDF – EBOOK OBSTETRICS: NORMAL AND PROBLEM PREGNANCIES (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK FUNDAMENTAL STATISTICS FOR THE BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK ROCK SLOPE ENGINEERING: CIVIL APPLICATIONS (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK LTE OPTIMIZATION ENGINEERING HANDBOOK – EBOOK AIRCRAFT STRUCTURES FOR ENGINEERING STUDENTS (6TH EDITION) – ETEXTBOOK ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK CHEMICAL ENGINEERING COMPUTATION WITH MATLAB – EBOOK PRECALCULUS (10TH EDITION GLOBAL) – MICHAEL SULLIVAN – ETEXTBOOK THE ART AND CRAFT OF PROBLEM SOLVING (3RD EDITION) BY PAUL ZEITZ – EBOOK FUNDAMENTALS OF GENERAL, ORGANIC AND BIOLOGICAL CHEMISTRY (8TH EDITION) IN SI UNITS PRINCIPLES OF GENERAL, ORGANIC, & BIOLOGICAL CHEMISTRY – ETEXTBOOK VETERINARY PHARMACOLOGY AND THERAPEUTICS 10TH EDITION – ETEXTBOOK PRINCIPLES OF DIRECT DATABASE & DIGITAL MARKETING (5TH EDITION) – ETEXTBOOK PRINCIPLES OF ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS 4TH EDITION – ETEXTBOOK THE PSYCHOLOGY STUDENT WRITER’S MANUAL AND READER’S GUIDE (THE STUDENT WRITER’S MANUAL: A GUIDE TO READING AND WRITING) 3RD EDITION PROTEIN PHYSICS: A COURSE OF LECTURES (SOFT CONDENSED MATTER, COMPLEX FLUIDS AND BIOMATERIALS) – 2E RENEWABLE ENERGY: PHYSICS, ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, ECONOMICS AND PLANNING (5TH EDITION) VACUUM AND ULTRAVACUUM: PHYSICS AND TECHNOLOGY 1ST EDITION – EBOOK E-BOOKS, PHYSICS, SCIENCE CHEESE, 4TH EDITION: CHEMISTRY, PHYSICS AND MICROBIOLOGY CHEMISTRY, E-BOOKS, PHYSICS, SCIENCE, TEXTBOOKS THEORETICAL BASIS FOR NURSING (4TH EDITION) – MCEWEN AND WILLS HOUSE OF SPIES – DANIEL SILVA – EBOOK WHERE GOOD IDEAS COME FROM: THE NATURAL HISTORY OF INNOVATION THE SUMMER BRIDE – CHANCE SISTERS #4 – AUDIOBOOK AUDIOBOOKS, ROMANCE, TEENS STUFF MATTERS: EXPLORING THE MARVELOUS MATERIALS THAT SHAPE OUR MAN-MADE WORLD YES! 50 SCIENTIFICALLY PROVEN WAYS TO BE PERSUASIVE – AUDIOBOOK FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE – EBOOK ESSENTIAL UNIVERSITY PHYSICS: VOLUME 1 (3RD GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK E-BOOKS, PHYSICS, SCIENCE, TEXTBOOKS FEATURED ENVIRONMENT: THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE STORIES (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK FINITE MATHEMATICS FOR BUSINESS, ECONOMICS, LIFE SCIENCES, AND SOCIAL SCIENCES (13TH EDITION) – EBOOK AUTOCAD 3D MODELING: EXERCISE WORKBOOK – EBOOK COMPUTERS, E-BOOKS, ENGINEERING MASTERING AUTOCAD 2019 AND AUTOCAD LT 2019 – EBOOK FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF LAW AND ECONOMICS – EBOOK PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS, A STREAMLINED APPROACH (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK MODERN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK COOKING: THE QUINTESSENTIAL ART – EBOOK AN INTRODUCTION TO GROUP WORK PRACTICE (8TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK RETAILING MANAGEMENT (9TH EDITION) – EBOOK RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK BACTERIAL THERAPY OF CANCER: METHODS AND PROTOCOLS – EBOOK EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY: THEORY AND PRACTICE (12TH EDITION) – EBOOK UNDERSTANDING FOOD: PRINCIPLES AND PREPARATION (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK THE ROUTLEDGE INTERNATIONAL HANDBOOK OF LIFELONG LEARNING – EBOOK PRACTICAL RESEARCH: PLANNING AND DESIGN (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE – EBOOK THE HANDBOOK OF THE HISTORY AND PHILOSOPHY OF CRIMINOLOGY – EBOOK ADVANCED MECHANICS OF MATERIALS AND APPLIED ELASTICITY – EBOOK OPERATING SYSTEM CONCEPTS – ESSENTIALS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK THE AMERICAN LAB: AN INSIDER’S HISTORY OF THE LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY – EBOOK FEATURED HEALTH PROMOTION PROGRAMS: FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE – EBOOK HEALTH PROMOTION IN SCHOOL: THEORY, PRACTICE AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS – EBOOK DESIGNING WITH THE MIND IN MIND: SIMPLE GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING USER INTERFACE DESIGN GUIDELINES (2ND EDITION) BUSINESS STATISTICS: A FIRST COURSE (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS (12TH EDITION) – EBOOK RESEARCH METHODS FOR BUSINESS: A SKILL BUILDING APPROACH (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK RESEARCH METHODS FOR BUSINESS STUDENTS (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK THE SAGE HANDBOOK OF QUALITATIVE BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH METHODS – EBOOK CULTURE, LEADERSHIP, AND ORGANIZATIONS: THE GLOBE STUDY OF 62 SOCIETIES – EBOOK CULTURE’S CONSEQUENCES: COMPARING VALUES, BEHAVIORS, INSTITUTIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS ACROSS NATIONS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK DIVERSITY IN ORGANIZATIONS (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK SERVICES MARKETING: CONCEPTS, STRATEGIES, AND CASES (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK GARTNER’S MACROECONOMICS (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK LIFETIME PHYSICAL FITNESS AND WELLNESS (15TH EDITION) – EBOOK MATERNAL-CHILD NURSING CARE, OPTIMIZING OUTCOMES FOR MOTHERS, CHILDREN AND FAMILIES – EBOOK CAPITALIST FAMILY VALUES: GENDER, WORK, AND CORPORATE CULTURE AT BOEING – EBOOK CULTURE AND THE POLITICS OF WELFARE: EXPLORING SOCIETAL VALUES AND SOCIAL CHOICES – EBOOK PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS FOR ENGINEERING AND THE SCIENCES (9TH EDITION) – SOLUTIONS MANUAL MATERIAL CULTURE IN RUSSIA AND THE USSR: THINGS, VALUES, IDENTITIES- EBOOK FREED SLAVES AND ROMAN IMPERIAL CULTURE: SOCIAL INTEGRATION AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF VALUES – EBOOK LEARNING AND BEHAVIOR (8TH EDITION) – EBOOK MICROECONOMICS: CANADA IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT (9TH EDITION) – EBOOK EMERGING GENRES IN NEW MEDIA ENVIRONMENTS – EBOOK MACHINE COMPONENT ANALYSIS WITH MATLAB – EBOOK COMPUTATIONAL ELECTROMAGNETICS WITH MATLAB (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK MATLAB ESSENTIALS: A FIRST COURSE FOR ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS – EBOOK AN ANTHROPOLOGY OF LEARNING: ON NESTED FRICTIONS IN CULTURAL ECOLOGIES – EBOOK HUMAN CULTURE: HIGHLIGHTS OF CULTURAL ANTHROPOLOGY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK DESIGN OPTIMIZATION OF FLUID MACHINERY: APPLYING COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS AND NUMERICAL OPTIMIZATION – EBOOK KINEMATICS, DYNAMICS, AND DESIGN OF MACHINERY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK ACCOUNTING FOR GOVERNMENTAL & NONPROFIT ENTITIES (17TH EDITION) – EBOOK GROUP DYNAMICS (7TH EDITION) – TEST BANK, INSTRUCTOR MANUAL, POWERPOINT BUSINESS COMMUNICATION: PROCESS AND PRODUCT (9TH EDITION) – EBOOK ADDICTION AND CHANGE: HOW ADDICTIONS DEVELOP AND ADDICTED PEOPLE RECOVER (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK TOBACCO SMOKING ADDICTION: EPIDEMIOLOGY, GENETICS, MECHANISMS, AND TREATMENT – EBOOK POLYUNSATURATED FATTY ACID METABOLISM – EBOOK ULRICH & CANALE’S NURSING CARE PLANNING GUIDES: PRIORITIZATION, DELEGATION, AND CRITICAL THINKING (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK A HANDBOOK TO THE RECEPTION OF CLASSICAL MYTHOLOGY – EBOOK CONCEPTS OF PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES (11TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK THROUGH THE LENS OF ANTHROPOLOGY: AN INTRODUCTION TO HUMAN EVOLUTION AND CULTURE (2ND EDITION) THROUGH THE LENS OF ANTHROPOLOGY: AN INTRODUCTION TO HUMAN EVOLUTION AND CULTURE – EBOOK INTRODUCTORY CHEMISTRY: AN ATOMS FIRST APPROACH – BURDGE/DRIESSEN – EBOOK PUBLIC RELATIONS: THE PROFESSION AND THE PRACTICE (4TH EDITION) – EBOOK THE PRACTICE OF PUBLIC RELATIONS (13TH GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIAL UNIVERSITY PHYSICS: VOLUME 2 (3RD GLOBAL EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIAL UNIVERSITY PHYSICS (3RD EDITION) – VOLUME 1 & 2 – EBOOK LEADERSHIP AND SCHOOL QUALITY (RESEARCH AND THEORY IN EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION) – EBOOK CULTURAL ANTHROPOLOGY: AN APPLIED PERSPECTIVE (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK ESSENTIAL ENVIRONMENT: THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE STORIES (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK PRACTITIONERS’ GUIDE TO HUMAN RIGHTS LAW IN ARMED CONFLICT – EBOOK HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND THE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT: SHIFTING PARADIGMS IN ESSENTIAL KNOWLEDGE FOR SOCIAL WORK PRACTICE (6TH EDITION) – EBOOK EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION: THEORY, RESEARCH, AND PRACTICE (9TH EDITION) – EBOOK GROUP DYNAMICS FOR TEAMS (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK ROCK DYNAMICS: FROM RESEARCH TO ENGINEERING – EBOOK HEALTH ASSESSMENT FOR NURSING PRACTICE (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK GROUP DYNAMICS (7TH EDITION) – DONELSON FORSYTH – EBOOK ESSENTIALS OF LIFE-SPAN DEVELOPMENT (5TH EDITION) – EBOOK CANADIAN ESSENTIALS OF NURSING RESEARCH (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK CARBON NANOMATERIALS FOR BIOIMAGING, BIOANALYSIS, AND THERAPY – EBOOK READING BETWEEN THE SIGNS: INTERCULTURAL COMMUNICATION FOR SIGN LANGUAGE INTERPRETERS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK HANDBOOK OF PERSONALITY DISORDERS: THEORY, RESEARCH, AND TREATMENT (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK TRANSFORMATIONS: WOMEN, GENDER AND PSYCHOLOGY (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK GENDERED JOURNEYS: WOMEN, MIGRATION AND FEMINIST PSYCHOLOGY – EBOOK ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT (7TH EDITION) – EBOOK TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY INEQUALITY & CAPITALISM: PIKETTY, MARX AND BEYOND – EBOOK MECHANICAL VENTILATION IN THE CRITICALLY ILL OBESE PATIENT – EBOOK MOSBY’S RESPIRATORY CARE EQUIPMENT (10TH EDITION) – EBOOK 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EDITION) – SEGUI – EBOOK ADVANCED STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS WITH MATLAB®- EBOOK INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK FRACTOGRAPHY AND FAILURE ANALYSIS – EBOOK AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE US ECONOMY: STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS IN 56 EQUATIONS – EBOOK STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION (3RD EDITION) – EBOOK MATRIX METHODS OF STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS – EBOOK STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL CONSTRUCTIONS: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH – PDF DICTIONARY OF INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS LAW – EBOOK HOPKINS’ NONPROFIT LAW DICTIONARY – EBOOK ABCS OF ARBITRAGE: TAX RULES FOR INVESTMENT OF BOND PROCEEDS BY MUNICIPALITIES (2018 EDITION) – EBOOK COMPANY ACCOUNTING (11TH EDITION) – EBOOK MCAT BIOCHEMISTRY REVIEW 2019-2020 – EBOOK CANCER: PRINCIPLES & PRACTICE OF ONCOLOGY: PRIMER OF THE MOLECULAR BIOLOGY OF CANCER (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK INTRODUCTION TO JAVA PROGRAMMING, AP VERSION – EBOOK STATISTICS (13TH EDITION) – GLOBAL – EBOOK MEDICAL EMERGENCIES IN DENTAL PRACTICE – EBOOK 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MECHANISMS, PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE (2ND EDITION) – EBOOK PHILOSOPHY OF MATHEMATICS AND ECONOMICS: IMAGE, CONTEXT AND
submitted by jaylenholt to ebookleaksdownload [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

“It was the largest plunge of the franc ever against the euro.” + Andreas Antonopoulos in India

2011–2014: Big movements and capping
In March 2011, the franc climbed past the US$1.10 mark (CHF 0.91 per U.S. dollar). In June 2011, the franc climbed past US$1.20 (CHF 0.833 per U.S. dollar) as investors sought safety as the Greek sovereign debt crisis continued.[16] Continuation of the same crisis in Europe and the debt crisis in the US propelled the Swiss franc past US$1.30 (CHF 0.769 per U.S. dollar) as of August 2011, prompting the Swiss National Bank to boost the franc's liquidity to try to counter its "massive overvaluation".[17] The Economist argued that its Big Mac Index in July 2011 indicated an overvaluation of 98% over the dollar, and cited Swiss companies releasing profit warnings and threatening to move operations out of the country due to the strength of the franc.[18] Demand for francs and franc-denominated assets was so strong that nominal short-term Swiss interest rates became negative.[19]
On 6 September 2011, shortly after when the exchange rate was 1.095 CHF/€[20] and appeared to be heading for parity with the euro, the SNB set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro (capping franc's appreciation), saying "the value of the franc is a threat to the economy",[21] and that it was "prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities".[22] In response to this announcement the franc fell against the euro, to 1.22 francs from 1.12 francs[23] and lost 9% against the U.S. dollar within fifteen minutes.[24] The intervention stunned currency traders, since the franc had long been regarded as a safe haven.[25]
The franc fell 8.8% against the euro, 9.5% against the dollar, and at least 8.2% against all 16 of the most active currencies on the day of the announcement. It was the largest plunge of the franc ever against the euro.[26] The SNB had previously set an exchange rate target in 1978 against the Deutsche mark and maintained it,[clarification needed] although at the cost of high inflation.[27] Until mid-January 2015, the franc continued to trade below the target level set by the SNB,[28] though the ceiling was broken at least once on 5 April 2012, albeit briefly.[29]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_franc
Bitcoin is completely immune to this kind of stuff. Reading what I’ve pasted above reminds me of a presentation AA gave in India.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4tsk-ZiHuE
How do we handle geographical arbitrage?
“If bitcoin is worth $12,000 here and $900 in the US, the simple answer, the obvious answer is, I buy bitcoin in the US, and I sell it in India.”
“What arbitrage activity tells you is not that bitcoin is worth $12,000 here, but that rupees are discounted 20% against hard assets, including other national currencies. The market is sending you a signal. A currency that cannot move across borders is worth less.”
Thoughts?
submitted by MarcBago to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The stable coin with 52x upside in the next 4 - 6 months - BAY coin

I have spent A LOT of time researching BitBay over the past month or so. Few people kknow about this coin but it's actually one of the older altcoins in the space. Longevity is EXTREMELY important in this space cases in point BitShares, BlackCoin, digibyte, doge etc.. Once thought to potentially one day rival Bitcoin was, more or less, abandoned around 2015. What happened? The industry took off in 2017 and those who kept working hard that had similar momentum circa 2015, were paid off exponentially. Cases in point: DarkCoin (rebranded to DASH and had and still continues development), Monero, LiteCoin, Ethereum etc. etc. BitBay has been just as active as the LiteCoins and DASH's from that time period and this info is ascertainable by studying their Reddit and BitcoinTalk thread extensively. No gaps of a month or multi-month in info. Team growth the team has apparently grown from a few to nearly 2 dozen full time team members.
So okay there's an active dedicated team, but what about the dev and the core fundamentals of project?
The dev David Zimbeck is thought to be a top 20 dev in crypto (CoinGecko) and top 200 by commit volume (CryptoMiso) yet the marketcap ranks them currently at 228. Their should be somewhat of a convergence over time moving all 3 numbers more to an average. This is a metric I've used to identify value buy criteria since mid-2017 and there's no reason it should continue to be relevant.
Project fundamentals: Bitbay has several wallets, one employing a free trade market powered by BitHalo which is a legacy project that provides a mechanism to trade and interact in a trustless manner. The real value is in the dynamic peg that's been in development since late 2016 and set to unroll live on exchanges in the coming months. What's so important about this peg? The peg uses a voting system to constrict and expand the circulating supply of coins, which in turn affects price due to supply/demand. The peg is now active in their cold wallet system and the only hold up has been the need for at least one public exchange to enact this functionality on their exchange. Well from some snooping around I've found out they are in negotiations with exchange BTC-Alpha to enact their. Bittrex apparently wanted 25 bitcoin and that's okay and dandy but I understand shopping that around a bit to find a better rate. If the functionality is active on at least one exchange than arbitrage should fill in the gaps on the others. Worse case scenario, upside $.50 and project has trouble tying exactly to $1 but finds an equilibrium and peg somewhere below. Best case scenario fluctuation between $.95 and $1.05 which is thought to be more or less standard for stable coins. MAKR boasts it stays at a dollar and that's great but I'm not interested in BAY because if their stability. I'm interested in BAY because of the extreme upside. I believe economics are utilized far too little in cryptocurrency exchange & development. I believe that math is a trader or investors best friend in cryptocurrency still next to insider info and if you're not in the who's-who circle in crypto than legitimate insider info is extremely rare and hard to come by I imagine. I took time to write about this because I believe adoption will help move the project along faster and perhaps also help other exchanges adopt their protocol at a reasonable rate.
Current price of BAY now = $.0198, projection by mid-2019 $.44 - $1.05 and yes there's a wide margin of error in the price prediction but that's a quality problem when my worse case scenario is still 20x gain. Happy trading and I hope someone enjoyed this :)
submitted by Arletec to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

ethtrader Glossary of Terms

I recently introduced a friend to our humble, little subreddit and they quickly pointed out that the language spoken here did not appear to be English. I suppose we do toss around a fair amount of acronyms, memes, and slang. I put together a quick glossary of terms for them and figured I should post it here in case any other new ethtraders can benefit from it:

Trading Related:

Crypto-currency related, but not really specific to Ethereum:

Terms more specific to Ethereum

Memes:

Any mistakes I made? Any terms you would add?
submitted by Basoosh to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Market Making Dogecoin on Exchanges

Hello,
My name is Rosa, I'm the Business Development Manager for ARBIT Corporation. I was also part of the CAVIRTEX operations team. I am reaching out to you because we are investors of your coin and hold it in our portfolio. We notice you trade on BINANCE, DIGIFINEX, BITTREX, and POLONIEX, and we want to help increase your volume and generate some revenue for you with our market making arbitrage as partners. We invest our own AUM to match a loan from you to increase liquidity around the world. We have done this for 7 other coins already totalling $220 Million in trading volume in 3 years (results shown in PDF).
ARBIT is a private Canadian Company founded in 2015 that conducts global arbitrage and market making services. Our team has over 20 years of combined experience dating back to 2011, when we launched the first Canadian Bitcoin Exchange CAVIRTEX. We later sold to KRAKEN.COM. Our CEO Joseph David appeared before the Canadian Senate to pave the way for Canadian Regulations (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-aBJm9SerE&t=1s). We have a 12 person team and $3M in AUM, and we are rapidly growing. We trade on 13 exchanges and 2 DEX's across 5 Fiat Currencies and 25 Crypto Currencies totalling over 200 order books. We have robots that trade 24/7 that are managed by our team. We are one of the few companies that are revenue positive, even in the sea of red that crypto has experienced lately.
We have a PDF presentation and a video that I can share. Are you interested in viewing the video and increasing DOGE volume.
Thank you,
Rosa Arbit Corporation Business Development Manager
submitted by rosebot35 to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
https://preview.redd.it/ithso6k9w7531.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e87d53120d9cc645b080c070afc5f9b402d56bf3
TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
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2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

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Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
https://preview.redd.it/kra7vduuw7531.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f1eda32d42a15b4e34ebfa5dbdaee78065ab110
Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

https://preview.redd.it/bjnu2hjvw7531.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=43df46d8337c63a52b8a7089ed5e24360f3b281d
submitted by Token_Roll to u/Token_Roll [link] [comments]

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